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Strait of Hormuz Crisis Analytics

Supply-chain analysis by Célian Colon, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

A running analysis of the supply-chain consequences of a Strait of Hormuz closure — beyond the oil-price story.

Latest update — 30 April 2026

Brief 2 documents five concrete supply-chain cascades now unfolding worldwide: Bangladeshi fertilizer and garments, Indian polyester apparel, Korean petrochemicals and AI-chip inputs, Japanese auto manufacturing, and the global copper–sulfur chain. Toyota is the first global company whose sales decline has been publicly tied to the crisis. Read Brief 2 →

Briefs

  • Brief 2 — Five case studies of supply-chain disruptions

    Empirical, 30 April 2026

    Five documented cascades — Bangladesh, India, Korea, Japan, copper — drawn from ~150 trade-press items. Shows how Hormuz disruption is propagating downstream (energy, raw materials, labor) and upstream (Gulf-bound exports), and how national policy responses are reshaping the cascade.

    Read brief PDF

  • Brief 1 — Logistics disruption & supply-chain spillovers

    Model-based, 21 April 2026

    Quantitative assessment using the DisruptSC spatial agent-based model. Estimates an 11-week closure produces ~17% Gulf and ~2–3% global household-consumption losses over the following year — with 90% of losses occurring after the Strait reopens.

    Read brief PDF

About this analysis

  • Scope. A Hormuz closure is not only an oil-price event. It is a logistics shock that propagates through containers, dry bulk, gas, and specialty inputs — hitting industries from fertilizers to semiconductors. This tracker focuses on that propagation, which is largely missed by oil-price-only assessments.
  • Methodology. Two complementary lenses: (i) the DisruptSC spatial agent-based model, which simulates how disruptions cascade through global production and transport networks, and (ii) systematic monitoring of trade-press reporting from primary industry sources.
  • Status. Preliminary research, not yet peer-reviewed. Critical feedback welcome.

For media and policy

celian.colon@polytechnique.org

What's next

Upcoming work will combines the empirical case studies with new model runs to quantify aggregate impact and assess policy options. Subscribe to the GitHub repository or contact me directly to be notified of new briefs.